Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a70…8de4 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$347 (-9%) realized −$347 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$345
sports 13% +$156
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 70% -13.8%
≤30d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 70% -13.8%
≤90d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 70% -13.8%
all 23 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 70% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 70% -13.8%
10% -13.7% 48% -22.0%
15% -22.0% 13% -29.6%
20% -29.6% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$145 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage7d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $504 +$176 +35%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $832 −$830 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $723 +$113 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $625 +$98 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $367 +$257 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $43 +$15 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $251 +$57 +23%
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 26 $1 $0 +22%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $1 $0 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $164 +$33 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $86 +$27 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $57 +$15 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$33 +41%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $680 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 75¢ $252 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $252 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 94¢ $832 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $837 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $722 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $723 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $625 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $625 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $367 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 2d
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
France to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $43 3d
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $251 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $197 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $80 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $164 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records