Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

2A 0x2a70…ee16 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-9%) realized −$27 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$80per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-12.8%	-21.1%	50%	0%	-23.8%
≤30d	3	-7.6%	-16.4%	67%	0%	-22.4%
≤90d	3	-7.6%	-16.4%	67%	0%	-22.4%
all	3	-7.6%	-16.4%	67%	0%	-22.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	0%	-22.4%
10%	-24.4%	0%	-29.9%
15%	-31.7%	0%	-36.6%
20%	-38.4%	0%	-42.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$33 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized−$27

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage58d

Avg bet$80

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$117	$117	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Jun 17	$75	+$4	+5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Jun 13	$106	−$33	-31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Jun 08	$17	$0	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$120	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	94¢	$79	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$75	4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	SELL No	58¢	$73	4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	84¢	$106	9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$17	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.50 · official $116.50 (match) · 7 history records