trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +101.0% | +81.9% | 100% | 100% | +81.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +101.0% | +81.9% | 100% | 100% | +81.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +6.1% | -4.0% | 46% | 46% | +32.2% |
| all | 24 | -11.9% | -20.3% | 38% | 38% | +5.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.3% | 38% | +5.7% |
| 10% | -27.9% | 38% | -4.4% |
| 15% | -34.9% | 38% | -13.7% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 33% | -22.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 67¢ | 66¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 70¢ | 64¢ | $30 | $27 | −$3 (-9%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 53¢ | 43¢ | $25 | $20 | −$5 (-18%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 50¢ | 42¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-17%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 14¢ | $25 | $11 | −$14 (-54%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens | Jun 21 | $20 | +$21 | +101% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs? | May 05 | $40 | +$65 | +162% |
| Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? | Apr 22 | $70 | +$173 | +246% |
| Canadiens vs. Rangers | Apr 08 | $10 | +$7 | +72% |
| Will Cole Caufield win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trop | Apr 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? | Apr 03 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Apr 01 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Apr 01 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? | Apr 01 | $100 | +$41 | +41% |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | Mar 31 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Mar 31 | $10 | +$16 | +156% |
| Bruins vs. Blue Jackets | Mar 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico | Mar 18 | $10 | +$10 | +96% |
| Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela | Mar 17 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Canadiens | Mar 15 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA | Mar 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Sharks vs. Canadiens | Mar 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 14 | $25 | −$2 | -8% |
| Oilers vs. Blues | Mar 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela | Mar 13 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| First Round Pool A: Cuba vs. Canada | Mar 12 | $10 | +$8 | +76% |
| Canadiens vs. Senators | Mar 12 | $10 | +$17 | +170% |
| Final Stage: Canada vs. USA | Mar 12 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |