Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a72…a2ab crypto 587 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,805 (-13%) realized −$1,805 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%223W / 364L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$476
14 days−$931
30 days−$1,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$813
politics 17% −$319
world 16% −$260
crypto 14% −$110
tech 10% −$120
sports 4% −$194
finance 3% −$90
weather 2% −$33
culture 2% −$27
economics 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -21.1% -28.6% 0% 0% -26.7%
≤30d 151 -20.8% -28.3% 1% 1% -22.6%
≤90d 587 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -22.3%
all 587 -11.6% -20.0% 38% 38% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -22.3%
10% -27.6% 37% -29.7%
15% -34.6% 33% -36.5%
20% -41.0% 28% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses223 / 364
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)587 / 587
History coverage58d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 587 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 22 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 21 $49 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $72 −$21 -29%
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knoc Jun 21 $27 −$4 -13%
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 $0 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 20 $189 −$26 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $225 −$66 -29%
Will Jordan Spieth make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jon Rahm lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Chris Gotterup finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el Jun 19 $19 −$6 -30%
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? Jun 19 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 19 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -30%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $132 −$41 -31%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI Jun 19 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 19 $3 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 19 $43 −$4 -10%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 18 $22 −$10 -47%
Will the match not air? Jun 18 $1 $0 -36%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 18 $156 −$61 -39%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $153 −$64 -42%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 18 $187 −$12 -6%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 18 $122 −$46 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 18 $18 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? Jun 18 $22 −$4 -20%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 18 $18 −$7 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 18 $6 $0 -8%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -66%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $130 −$3 -2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $114 −$4 -3%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? Jun 17 $164 −$43 -26%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $166 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL Yes 28¢ $39 1h
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 12h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 12h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election SELL No 55¢ $46 20h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY No 58¢ $49 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $27 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $10 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $6 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $2 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $2 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $5 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $8 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $8 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 25¢ $4 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1288 history records