Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a73…c2e5 sports 1538 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$566 (+0%) realized +$600 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%1055W / 480L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$186est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$50
14 days+$87
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$373
sports 19% −$268
other 4% +$230
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 66 -14.8% -22.9% 65% 20% -11.5%
≤90d 481 -3.8% -12.9% 63% 41% -10.1%
all 1535 -0.5% -10.0% 69% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 38% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 30% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$1,058
Realized+$600
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1055 / 480
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1535 / 1538
History coverage237d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $900 $903 +$3 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 98¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 458 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 +$8 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 −$9 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $850 +$2 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $135 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $981 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $967 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $961 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $957 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $949 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $942 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $938 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $931 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,029 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,026 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,013 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,007 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $72 −$72 -99%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $59 +$13 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $57 +$19 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $29 +$16 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $101 −$50 -49%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $74 +$58 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $999 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $45 +$29 +64%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) May 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Set Handicap: Vallejo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5) May 28 $51 +$26 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $26 +$118 +461%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Wu (+1.5) May 28 $51 +$31 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Zachary Svajda vs. Adam Walton: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $25 −$1 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Busta (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) May 27 $102 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $92 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $84 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 82¢ $84 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $900 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $93 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $50 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $850 39h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $86 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $981 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $967 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $961 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $957 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $949 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $942 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $938 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $931 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $999 18d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $72 18d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 18d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $59 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,057.85 · official $1,057.85 (match) · 2723 history records