Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2A 0x2a79…a1b0 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$706 (+33%) realized +$709 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip

Net edge+56%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$304per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+55.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+72.1%	+55.7%	100%	100%	+56.9%
≤30d	4	+72.1%	+55.7%	100%	100%	+56.9%
≤90d	4	+72.1%	+55.7%	100%	100%	+56.9%
all	4	+72.1%	+55.7%	100%	100%	+56.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+55.7%	100%	+56.9%
10%	+40.8%	100%	+41.9%
15%	+27.2%	100%	+28.2%
20%	+14.8%	75%	+15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +73% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +72% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$182 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,117

Realized+$709

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$304

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$320	$323	+$3 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$274	+$352	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$338	+$184	+54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$236	+$103	+43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$146	+$90	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$325	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$403	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$404	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$523	10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$274	44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$338	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$339	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$236	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$146	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.27 · official $1,117.27 (match) · 11 history records