Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a79…64af other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$552 (+28%) realized +$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$563
sports 23% −$156
crypto 16% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% +20.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% +20.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% +20.8%
all 4 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 50% +20.8%
10% -18.4% 50% +9.2%
15% -26.2% 25% -1.3%
20% -33.5% 25% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$88 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $455 −$156 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $468 +$511 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $216 +$52 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$19 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 7¢ $298 31m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $300 59m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $455 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $523 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $468 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $268 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $216 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $290.00 · 9 history records