Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a82…2b0a crypto 1138 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%787W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$58
14 days+$39
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 74% -4.8%
≤30d 875 +1.3% -8.3% 72% 72% -8.6%
≤90d 1138 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 69% -9.2%
all 1138 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 69% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 69% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 64% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 40% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses787 / 351
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1138 / 1138
History coverage53d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1138 Trades
no open positions (309 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2057 history records