Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a83…539a crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%111W / 56L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day138.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$46
other 14% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 66% -2.3%
≤30d 167 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 66% -2.3%
≤90d 167 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 66% -2.3%
all 167 +8.1% -2.2% 66% 66% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 66% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 65% -11.6%
15% -20.1% 54% -20.2%
20% -27.9% 46% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses111 / 56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day138.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 71¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 71¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 52m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 58m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.87 · official $10.21 · 284 history records