Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2a85…e8b9 other 103 markets active 3d ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%57W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$6
crypto 5% +$3
sports 4% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.6% +1.9% 69% 69% -19.0%
≤30d 47 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 57% -6.3%
≤90d 54 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 57% -6.8%
all 103 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 54% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 54% -8.1%
10% -23.7% 49% -16.9%
15% -31.0% 46% -24.9%
20% -37.8% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses57 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage179d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 $0 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 11d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records