Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a85…54c1 other 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-3%) realized −$72 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%177W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$43
14 days−$48
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$34
other 37% −$77
culture 7% −$9
tech 5% −$21
sports 5% −$20
world 4% −$7
crypto 2% +$18
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 15% -16.3%
≤30d 229 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 14% -16.1%
≤90d 358 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 20% -13.0%
all 358 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 20% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 20% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 12% -21.3%
15% -32.0% 9% -28.9%
20% -38.7% 6% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses177 / 181
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions107
Markets (closed)358 / 466
History coverage56d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 91¢ 96¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Nicki Minaj perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 81¢ 96¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 89¢ 86¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Trump on $250 bill this year? No 92¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? No 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Travis Scott perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 70¢ 47¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will SZA perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 97¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 86¢ 74¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 57¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-39%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 96¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Daddy Yankee perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 45¢ 95¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+109%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 95¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 93¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 93¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -84%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$14 +332%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matheus Cunha be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daizen Maeda be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Douglas Santos be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song f Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 21m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 22m
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL Yes 51¢ $5 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 90¢ $2 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5h
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? BUY No 83¢ $5 5h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 32¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.55 · official $371.40 (match) · 1712 history records