Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a87…a55a weather 565 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,657 (-14%) realized −$2,673 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%182W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$805
sports 0% +$2
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -89.3% -90.3% 4% 4% -91.9%
≤30d 439 -46.6% -51.7% 20% 20% -52.3%
≤90d 745 -29.7% -36.4% 24% 24% -39.9%
all 745 -29.7% -36.4% 24% 24% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 24% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 24% -45.6%
15% -48.1% 22% -50.9%
20% -53.2% 21% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized−$2,673
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses182 / 563
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)745 / 565
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 27? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $51 $127 +$76 (+148%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $107 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 28? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $51 $75 +$24 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $69 $64 −$5 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $55 $62 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $32 $44 +$12 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 28? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? Yes 28¢ 4¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $14 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 27? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 27? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 27? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 28 $30 −$31 -103%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 28 $28 −$25 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 3? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Jun 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30? Jun 28 $43 −$49 -114%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 28 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 9? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28? Jun 28 $35 −$62 -180%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 28 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30? Jun 28 $17 −$31 -187%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 27 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Jun 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 28 $62 −$64 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 28 $60 −$66 -110%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 5? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4? Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29? Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 4? Jun 28 $56 −$64 -115%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4? Jun 28 $42 −$29 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2? Jun 28 $47 −$48 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8? Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 8? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 9h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $728.83 · official $729.58 (match) · 3500 history records