Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a8c…d019 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+13%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$88
other 47% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 33% +1.3%
≤30d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 33% +1.3%
≤90d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 33% +1.3%
all 6 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 33% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 33% +1.3%
10% -18.7% 33% -8.4%
15% -26.6% 33% -17.2%
20% -33.8% 33% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$38 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$78 +158%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$66 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 4h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $66 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 70¢ $53 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 66¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records