Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a8d…8922 sports 43 markets active 9h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,428 (-12%) realized −$1,326 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$4,453
other 20% +$2,895
crypto 3% +$132
world 2% −$271
politics 1% −$19
economics 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 34% -21.9%
≤30d 41 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 34% -21.9%
≤90d 41 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 34% -21.9%
all 41 -11.9% -20.3% 34% 34% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 34% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 32% -29.4%
15% -34.9% 29% -36.2%
20% -41.2% 27% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$221 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$1,326
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $128 $109 −$19 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $88 $5 −$83 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $89 −$35 -40%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $103 +$35 +34%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $439 −$439 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $444 −$434 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $341 −$341 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $153 +$188 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $192 −$88 -46%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $193 +$337 +175%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $192 +$91 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$119 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$13 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$17 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $79 +$153 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$3 -25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $920 −$920 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $291 +$176 +60%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $305 +$214 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $906 −$81 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $953 +$105 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 21 $256 −$256 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $586 −$586 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 21 $463 −$463 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $287 −$287 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $984 −$984 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $510 −$5 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $295 +$1,505 +510%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,365 +$1,207 +88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$153 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $294 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $102 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $90 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $54 8h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $138 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $240 16h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 26¢ $204 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $341 16h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 14¢ $51 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 44¢ $153 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 20¢ $88 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $192 17h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 6¢ $137 17h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 43¢ $530 17h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 15¢ $193 18h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $204 18h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $204 18h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 19¢ $102 18h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 29¢ $102 18h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 38¢ $183 18h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 64¢ $10 19h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 62¢ $272 20h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 38¢ $102 20h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 43¢ $51 20h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 49¢ $39 20h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $133 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $223 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $82 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.08 · official $114.08 (match) · 121 history records