Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a8e…b887 politics 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%6W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
sports 23% −$2
other 22% −$2
world 6% −$2
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -33.2% -39.5% 67% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 4 -33.1% -39.4% 50% 0% -10.7%
all 58 -9.4% -18.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses6 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage239d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $84 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $162 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $2 $0 -11%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $83 $0 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $1 $0 -50%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $88 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $1 $0 -12%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 15 $91 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $89 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $68 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 40d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 114d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $83 114d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $83 116d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 120d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 128d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 132d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 136d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 140d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 140d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 144d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 144d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 144d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? SELL No $0 144d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY No $1 145d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 145d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 147d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 149d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 150d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 150d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $0 150d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.19 · official $67.19 (match) · 224 history records