Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a90…946a other 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-7%) realized −$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%298W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$10
14 days−$214
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$77
sports 39% −$365
crypto 2% +$9
world 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.5% -6.3% 74% 52% -11.5%
≤30d 178 -10.0% -18.6% 67% 43% -17.1%
≤90d 452 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 49% -15.9%
all 452 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 49% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 49% -15.9%
10% -22.7% 32% -23.9%
15% -30.2% 18% -31.3%
20% -37.0% 10% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses298 / 154
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)452 / 453
History coverage52d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$8 +20%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$6 +180%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 +$6 +24%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$4 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$11 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 +$3 +30%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$12 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $116 −$115 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $63 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 13h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $9 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $3 14h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 15h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 18h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 18h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 38h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 38h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 38h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 39h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 40h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $38 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.89 · official $61.89 (match) · 957 history records