Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a90…56b5 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+13%) realized +$40 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.8% -6.0% 59% 52% +3.2%
≤30d 54 +3.8% -6.0% 59% 52% +3.2%
≤90d 54 +3.8% -6.0% 59% 52% +3.2%
all 54 +3.8% -6.0% 59% 52% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 52% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -6.7%
15% -23.2% 39% -15.7%
20% -30.8% 35% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+101%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 62¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.69 · official $18.60 (match) · 161 history records