Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2A 0x2a92…dc69 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,316 (+4%) realized +$3,792 · open −$2,476
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%34W / 19L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,129
7 days+$2,209
14 days+$3,269
30 days+$3,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$2,006
sports 19% +$1,536
other 18% +$1,574
world 6% +$270
politics 2% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +33.9% +21.2% 54% 46% +12.4%
≤30d 30 +41.2% +27.8% 57% 50% +20.4%
≤90d 33 +28.4% +16.2% 52% 45% +15.1%
all 53 +21.8% +10.2% 64% 40% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 40% +3.3%
10% -0.4% 38% -6.6%
15% -10.0% 28% -15.6%
20% -18.8% 21% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$785) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$167 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$3,245
Realized+$3,792
Unrealized−$2,476
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses34 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage261d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $850 $944 +$94 (+11%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $560 $634 +$74 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $818 $595 −$223 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 16¢ $2,963 $529 −$2,434 (-82%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $270 $284 +$14 (+5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes $120 $130 +$10 (+8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $323 +$177 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $760 +$100 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $280 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $993 +$7 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $502 +$86 +17%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $406 +$374 +92%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,095 +$405 +37%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $272 −$269 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $233 −$229 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $425 +$101 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $220 +$280 +127%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $421 −$420 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $340 +$160 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 +$200 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $390 +$210 +54%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $164 +$1,836 +1116%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$32 +107%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $220 −$195 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,365 +$658 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $308 +$520 +169%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $460 +$540 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19? Apr 09 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 09 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,105 +$37 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $790 +$210 +27%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 14 $895 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 05 $477 +$117 +24%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Jan 01 $582 +$30 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,239 −$133 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2,696 +$259 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,383 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 01 $785 −$170 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Dec 26 $800 +$80 +10%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Dec 25 $1,020 +$346 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $1,206 +$49 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $3,080 +$189 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Dec 05 $21 +$7 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 October 20-26? Oct 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Oct 20 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19? Oct 20 $34 +$14 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $7 8m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $24 9m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $21 9m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $49 11m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $125 12m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $15 14m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $3 15m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $15 15m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $0 15m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $1 17m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $323 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 72¢ $160 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 72¢ $200 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $280 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $48 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $633 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $46 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $32 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $278 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 53¢ $392 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 49¢ $98 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 46¢ $93 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $167 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,244.91 · official $3,244.91 (match) · 682 history records