Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2A 0x2a95…e489 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$74 (-25%) realized −$74 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+4.0%	-5.9%	100%	0%	-5.9%
≤30d	1	+4.0%	-5.9%	100%	0%	-5.9%
≤90d	1	+4.0%	-5.9%	100%	0%	-5.9%
all	3	-17.5%	-25.3%	67%	33%	-8.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.3%	33%	-8.3%
10%	-32.5%	33%	-17.1%
15%	-39.0%	33%	-25.1%
20%	-45.0%	0%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.4 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$74

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage125d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	100¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$139	+$6	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Feb 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Feb 15	$3	+$1	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	29¢	$62	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$144	14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	70¢	$144	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$139	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$4	125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$3	125d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records