Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a9a…68dd other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-8%) realized −$430 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$507
7 days−$353
14 days−$314
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$844
sports 32% +$376
culture 2% −$53
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.3% -21.6% 42% 42% -20.4%
≤30d 56 -23.9% -31.1% 36% 34% -17.0%
≤90d 75 -22.2% -29.6% 35% 33% -17.7%
all 75 -22.2% -29.6% 35% 33% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -17.7%
10% -36.4% 31% -25.6%
15% -42.5% 27% -32.7%
20% -48.2% 21% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$35 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 49
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage54d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $99 −$80 -81%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $686 −$61 -9%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $324 −$124 -38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $265 −$261 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $38 +$38 +100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 −$33 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end Jun 27 $20 +$41 +206%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $177 +$44 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $213 −$210 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $126 +$94 +75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $75 +$75 +100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $166 +$135 +82%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $124 +$43 +34%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $39 +$35 +88%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $53 +$47 +89%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $100 −$33 -34%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$106 +69%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 −$30 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$36 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $271 +$29 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $150 +$145 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$146 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$48 +49%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 −$29 -57%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$20 -48%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $133 −$5 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $20 +$36 +182%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 3¢ $7 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $11 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $7 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $98 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $177 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $205 33h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $200 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $96 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 41h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 42h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 42h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $38 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 80¢ $38 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $199 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end BUY 32¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $49 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $173 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $23 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $177 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $105 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.07 · official $35.07 (match) · 295 history records