Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a9b…a980 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+7%) realized +$68 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$50
sports 4% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤30d 13 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 38% -16.1%
≤90d 13 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 38% -16.1%
all 13 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 38% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 38% -16.1%
10% -38.7% 31% -24.1%
15% -44.6% 31% -31.4%
20% -50.0% 31% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$42 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 56¢ 46¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$25 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $120 +$220 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -95%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $31 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $131 −$105 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $115 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 41¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Sharks 66¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 42¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.23 · official $73.30 · 32 history records