Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a9e…cb89 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-10%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$133
14 days−$122
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$156
sports 26% +$23
crypto 14% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 47% -15.0%
≤30d 37 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 49% -13.1%
≤90d 37 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 49% -13.1%
all 37 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 49% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 49% -13.1%
10% -22.3% 27% -21.4%
15% -29.8% 16% -29.0%
20% -36.7% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage16d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$14 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$94 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$7 +128%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $44 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $60 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $51 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $35 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $50 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $60 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 84¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 68¢ $40 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3d
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 4d
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records