Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2aa1…1ea8 sports 825 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,763 (-9%) realized −$22,846 · open +$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%396W / 702L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Fees−$2,963est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$16,458
other 21% −$4,286
crypto 2% +$649
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -82.0% -83.7% 9% 7% -69.4%
≤30d 688 -40.8% -46.4% 32% 28% -48.7%
≤90d 1098 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 32% -28.0%
all 1098 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 32% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 32% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 27% -34.8%
15% -47.7% 22% -41.1%
20% -52.8% 18% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$179 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$22,846
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses396 / 702
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,963
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1098 / 825
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$324
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 46¢ 94¢ $80 $163 +$83 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $381 −$365 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $217 −$217 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $264 −$264 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $475 −$475 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $219 −$219 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on March 27? Jun 19 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $483 −$483 -100%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-04-12? Jun 19 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $177 −$177 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $98 −$74 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $580 −$580 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 82¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 82¢ $449 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 82¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 82¢ $182 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $699 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $659 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.93 · official $156.94 · 3500 history records