Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa4…2638 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$21,565 (+7%) realized +$21,765 · open −$200
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$7,062per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$361
14 days+$361
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$21,475
sports 0% +$108
crypto 0% −$377
politics 0% +$9
economics 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.0% +14.0% 77% 69% +15.0%
≤30d 13 +26.0% +14.0% 77% 69% +15.0%
≤90d 30 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 47% -6.5%
all 44 -7.1% -16.0% 66% 39% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 39% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 30% -12.8%
15% -31.4% 25% -21.2%
20% -38.1% 16% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$56 · ×13.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.64 per $1 lost it wins $26.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,765
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage240d
Avg bet$7,062
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 36¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 51¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $101 −$95 -95%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $151 −$41 -27%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $100 +$15 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $129 +$94 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $203 +$117 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Apr 27 $150 −$140 -93%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $421 +$112 +27%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $148 −$20 -14%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 27 $124 +$7 +5%
Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 13 $205 +$45 +22%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 12 $97 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $282 +$17 +6%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 01 $82 +$18 +22%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 14 $281 +$7 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 02 $18 $0 -0%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $222,069 +$13,486 +6%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $31,201 +$745 +2%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $66,764 +$7,004 +10%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $320 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands $5 13m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 77¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 36¢ $102 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 42¢ $110 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 56¢ $151 4h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 46h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $101 46h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $72 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 287 history records