Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aa5…ff32 sports 455 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47,183 (-32%) realized −$47,039 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%211W / 243L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$2,030est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,979
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.0% -31.3% 60% 40% +2.1%
≤30d 14 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 43% -7.2%
≤90d 454 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 37% -16.8%
all 454 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 37% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 37% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 31% -24.8%
15% -17.0% 30% -32.0%
20% -25.2% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$192 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$47,039
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses211 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,030
Open positions1
Markets (closed)454 / 455
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$320
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs TEAM VISION 80¢ 96¢ $401 $480 +$78 (+20%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 33¢ 4¢ $164 $20 −$144 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $328 +$82 +25%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $134 +$66 +50%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $190 +$10 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $168 +$32 +19%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$64 +127%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $306 −$56 -18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $247 −$47 -19%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$52 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $309 −$59 -19%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $90 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 18 $158 −$10 -6%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 18 $151 −$31 -20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $10 +$14 +138%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $177 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 16 $462 +$78 +17%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $64 −$4 -7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $59 +$100 +169%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 16 $64 +$96 +149%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $92 +$28 +30%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $60 +$9 +16%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $132 −$12 -9%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $161 +$19 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $103 +$37 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $29 +$1 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $38 37m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $16 37m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $27 37m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $312 38m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $8 38m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $410 47m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $132 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $64 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 79¢ $196 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $21 47h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $38 47h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $11 47h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $13 47h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nigma Galaxy 66¢ $82 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 17¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $117 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $53 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $48 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $8 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 38¢ $31 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 84¢ $168 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.98 · official $499.98 (match) · 3500 history records