Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
2A 0x2aa8…8b99 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$2,807 (+36%) realized +$2,807 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$199
14 days+$555
30 days+$2,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$3,129
other 20% −$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +108.7% +88.8% 75% 75% +43.9%
≤30d 32 +41.4% +27.9% 56% 56% +24.9%
≤90d 32 +41.4% +27.9% 56% 56% +24.9%
all 32 +41.4% +27.9% 56% 56% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.9% 56% +24.9%
10% +15.7% 56% +12.9%
15% +4.5% 53% +2.0%
20% -5.8% 53% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$158 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,807
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage24d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $32 +$21 +64%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $7 +$24 +342%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $198 +$254 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $394 −$389 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $421 −$414 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$306 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $291 +$423 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $178 −$174 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $667 −$57 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $227 −$224 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $181 +$47 +26%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $203 −$22 -11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $326 +$273 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $415 +$473 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 +$214 +105%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $204 +$402 +197%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 +$168 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $234 +$168 +72%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$374 +365%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $191 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $190 +$359 +188%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $407 +$545 +134%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $202 +$115 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $594 +$577 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $32 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $32 13h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 22¢ $7 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $444 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $451 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $198 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $102 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $394 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 15¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $114 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $611 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $308 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $305 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $102 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $291 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $178 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $178 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $227 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $228 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $181 10d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 25¢ $182 10d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 27¢ $203 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 88¢ $599 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $325 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $415 13d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $203 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 17¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $51.73 · 71 history records