Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2aa9…b43a crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-7%) realized −$41 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%43W / 37L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -4.3% -13.5% 55% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 80 -5.2% -14.3% 54% 50% -0.9%
≤90d 80 -5.2% -14.3% 54% 50% -0.9%
all 80 -5.2% -14.3% 54% 50% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% -0.9%
10% -22.5% 40% -10.4%
15% -30.0% 36% -19.0%
20% -36.8% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage15d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-59%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $32 $6 −$26 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $64 +$117 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$18 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$28 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $115 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $66 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $35 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $15 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $24 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $17 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.39 · official $19.39 (match) · 259 history records