Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2A 0x2aad…e111 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$6,176 (-29%) realized −$6,176 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%9W / 14L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$939per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,277

7 days−$6,349

14 days−$6,349

30 days−$6,349

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-19.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-10.6%	-19.1%	39%	39%	-36.2%
≤30d	23	-10.6%	-19.1%	39%	39%	-36.2%
≤90d	23	-10.6%	-19.1%	39%	39%	-36.2%
all	23	-10.6%	-19.1%	39%	39%	-36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.1%	39%	-36.2%
10%	-26.9%	30%	-42.3%
15%	-33.9%	30%	-47.9%
20%	-40.4%	22%	-53.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,581) neutral

Persistence

early -11% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$506 vs −$779 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$6,176

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses9 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage8d

Avg bet$939

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$425	+$56	+13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3,480	−$3,463	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2,197	+$318	+14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,581	+$719	+46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$389	+$1,193	+307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$416	−$26	-6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,766	−$1,349	-76%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Jun 15	$207	−$30	-15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3,005	−$1,863	-62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$204	−$90	-44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	+$116	+114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2,022	+$1,179	+58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$709	−$700	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,423	−$1,405	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,005	−$1,000	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$750	+$452	+60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$488	−$261	-54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$508	−$500	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$204	+$323	+158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$490	+$203	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$481	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	88¢	$425	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$962	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$11	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$2,507	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	97¢	$1,691	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,300	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,581	30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,582	45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$389	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	65¢	$390	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$416	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	16¢	$359	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	17¢	$57	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$251	2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL Yes	11¢	$177	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,515	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	35¢	$1,142	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$3,005	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	17¢	$114	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$204	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY Yes	12¢	$207	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$1,012	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$709	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$1,011	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records