Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2aad…ea96 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+34%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% $0
other 13% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
≤30d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
≤90d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
all 6 +9.4% -1.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 33% +9.7%
10% -10.5% 33% -0.8%
15% -19.1% 33% -10.4%
20% -27.0% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $7 26m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $4 54m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $4 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records