Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aaf…b21a sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,172 (+16%) realized +$6,976 · open −$1,804
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,377per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$486est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$5,254
other 30% −$3,719
crypto 4% −$658
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.6% +30.8% 43% 43% -39.2%
≤30d 17 +10.9% +0.3% 29% 29% -44.3%
≤90d 17 +10.9% +0.3% 29% 29% -44.3%
all 17 +10.9% +0.3% 29% 29% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 29% -44.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 29% -49.6%
15% -18.0% 29% -54.5%
20% -26.1% 29% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,028) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,680 vs −$1,352 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$7,070
Realized+$6,976
Unrealized−$1,804
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$486
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,377
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $4,873 $4,808 −$64 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 14¢ $2,186 $1,213 −$973 (-45%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Zizou Bergs 30¢ 30¢ $690 $678 −$12 (-2%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 36¢ 14¢ $983 $369 −$614 (-62%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vexa 22¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $5,993 −$5,991 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $858 +$2,504 +292%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $735 +$708 +96%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $2,904 −$900 -31%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $2,713 −$2,609 -96%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $778 +$2,522 +324%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $250 −$240 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $1,935 −$1,895 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $712 −$694 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $655 −$635 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $496 +$2,348 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $298 +$317 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$91 -95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,028 −$67 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,948 −$2,894 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $4,963 0m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 36¢ $1,002 36m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 12¢ $985 36m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 15¢ $1,257 41m
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 22¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $3,362 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 41¢ $1 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp $257 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 10¢ $11 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 11¢ $765 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 10¢ $0 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 30¢ $511 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 36¢ $1,019 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 40¢ $1,394 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 40¢ $2,036 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $1,442 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $311 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $0 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $20 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $203 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $3 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $7,401 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $350 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $4 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida $7 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $1,953 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $18 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 91¢ $91 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 11¢ $10 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 11¢ $62 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,069.99 · official $7,285.29 · 145 history records