Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2ab4…b18b sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$374 (+23%) realized +$147 · open +$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +207% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +157% what you keep after slip
Net edge+157%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$605
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+178.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +207.3% +178.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
≤30d 12 +207.3% +178.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
≤90d 12 +207.3% +178.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
all 12 +207.3% +178.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +178.1% 58% +20.1%
10% +151.5% 58% +8.6%
15% +127.2% 50% -1.9%
20% +104.9% 50% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +207% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +213% → late +201% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$80 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 76¢ $446 $687 +$241 (+54%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 5¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $197 +$183 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1290%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$4 -88%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$24 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $140 −$137 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $19 +$239 +1290%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $251 −$249 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $155 +$96 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $143 +$109 +76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $453 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $51 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $125 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $102 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 12¢ $9 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $10 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $197 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $140 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 7¢ $19 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 74¢ $251 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $155 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $143 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $99 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.56 · official $718.99 (match) · 24 history records