Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2ab5…44f0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$57
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$124
crypto 3% +$10
sports 3% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 50% -14.4%
≤30d 12 -19.7% -27.4% 50% 42% -15.1%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 46% -10.7%
all 13 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 46% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 46% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 31% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 23% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$49 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage66d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 +$43 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$14 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 +$12 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$11 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$62 +176%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 −$38 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $24 +$52 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $204 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $198 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $181 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $177 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $120 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $108 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $109 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $84 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $84 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $98 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $98 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.90 · official $48.90 (match) · 37 history records