Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ab5…7865 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+12%) realized +$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%29W / 17L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$243
other 40% +$2
politics 6% $0
culture 1% −$2
world 1% $0
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.4% +9.9% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤30d 6 +21.4% +9.9% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤90d 12 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 42% -2.6%
all 46 +3.8% -6.1% 63% 35% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 35% +2.1%
10% -15.1% 33% -7.6%
15% -23.3% 33% -16.6%
20% -30.8% 33% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses29 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage548d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $77 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01? May 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Ksenia Efremova Apr 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 27 $11 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $13 +$7 +54%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$34 +68%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 21 $52 −$52 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$38 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$45 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$51 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$15 +77%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$38 +76%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$36 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central Mar 18 $17 −$1 -5%
Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? Dec 09 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 09 $106 +$106 +100%
NASA Escapade launch by December 31? Nov 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by Novembe Nov 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) be nominated for Best Nov 06 $18 −$2 -12%
Will there be a Powerball jackpot winner by September 28? Oct 15 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025? Sep 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 14 $17 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jul 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? May 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 10 $643 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $46 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $25 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $27 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $29 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 39d
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 50d
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Ksenia Efremova BUY Ksenia Efremova 31¢ $3 53d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 90d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 90d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $50 90d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $45 91d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 91d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 91d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $33 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.87 · official $102.87 (match) · 129 history records