Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ab5…f5be other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+5%) realized +$273 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$342
7 days+$54
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$55
sports 29% +$190
crypto 2% +$21
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 58 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -4.7%
≤90d 58 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -4.7%
all 58 +6.4% -3.8% 53% 53% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 53% -4.7%
10% -13.0% 45% -13.9%
15% -21.4% 40% -22.2%
20% -29.1% 33% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$49 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage18d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $150 $118 −$32 (-21%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 24¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $121 +$19 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $121 +$39 +32%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $121 +$21 +17%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Venezuela (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 +$116 +227%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $71 −$70 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $85 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $85 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.72 · official $458.72 (match) · 111 history records