Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ac0…71ba sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$6
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 13 -3.9% -13.1% 92% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 15% -9.3%
10% -21.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage130d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 100¢ 100¢ $923 $926 +$3 (+0%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Germany 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Renata Zarazua 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia Mar 04 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ENCE (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdow Mar 04 $1 $0 +11%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 04 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Ser Feb 13 $1 $0 +1%
Elon Phoenix vs. UNCW Seahawks Feb 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Pigeons (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Feb 12 $220 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 12 $222 +$1 +0%
Washington State Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Feb 12 $1 $0 +4%
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies Feb 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $280 $0 +0%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. SMU Mustangs Feb 11 $280 +$2 +1%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $78 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 93¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 100¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 100¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 100¢ $111 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 100¢ $106 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 100¢ $111 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 99¢ $222 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 99¢ $222 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 94¢ $1 2h
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 99¢ $1 108d
Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks BUY Miami (OH) RedHawks 85¢ $1 127d
Men's Group A - France vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 94¢ $1 127d
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ENCE (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdow BUY ENCE 90¢ $1 127d
Elon Phoenix vs. UNCW Seahawks BUY UNCW Seahawks 99¢ $100 127d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Ser BUY Sharks 99¢ $1 127d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Pigeons (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY BASEMENT BOYS 100¢ $220 128d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $222 128d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? BUY No 100¢ $280 128d
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. SMU Mustangs BUY SMU Mustangs 99¢ $280 129d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $1 130d
Washington State Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs BUY Gonzaga Bulldogs 96¢ $1 130d
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies BUY Utah State Aggies 95¢ $1 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.00 · official $1,006.00 (match) · 39 history records