Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac6…82ac other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$12
other 39% +$9
politics 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 33% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 10% -8.2%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 10% -8.2%
all 49 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 12% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 12% -7.9%
10% -17.5% 8% -16.7%
15% -25.5% 2% -24.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage306d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 +$2 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $75 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $44 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 −$4 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 +$14 +32%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $39 +$12 +30%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $64 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $5 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $2 $0 -22%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $40 +$1 +2%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $3 $0 +11%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $46 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $46 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $36 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $5 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $28 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $12 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $45 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $2 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $44 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records