Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac7…8a43 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 334d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,550 (+3%) realized +$2,550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%49W / 56L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 334d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$3,911
crypto 27% −$4,575
other 2% −$936
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -14.6% -22.8% 47% 47% -5.8%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 49% +0.2%
≤90d 86 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 48% -6.2%
all 105 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 47% -11.3%
10% -26.4% 44% -19.8%
15% -33.5% 37% -27.5%
20% -40.0% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$521 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses49 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage334d
Avg bet$802
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$49 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $150 +$350 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $540 +$778 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $440 −$61 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $164 +$236 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $119 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $55 +$24 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $202 −$26 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $298 +$127 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $94 +$28 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $200 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $599 +$313 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $383 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $245 −$145 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $396 −$60 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $113 +$47 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $71 +$69 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $72 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $32 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 2284 history records