Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2ac8…9e67 sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,881 (-13%) realized −$3,149 · open +$268
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%91W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$526
14 days−$454
30 days−$2,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,047
other 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -60.7% -64.4% 14% 14% -94.3%
≤30d 35 -36.8% -42.8% 29% 29% -87.2%
≤90d 157 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 29% -53.8%
all 209 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 43% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 43% -23.8%
10% -28.2% 41% -31.1%
15% -35.1% 40% -37.8%
20% -41.5% 38% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$96 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized−$3,149
Unrealized+$268
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses91 / 118
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage164d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 92¢ $459 $727 +$268 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $424 −$418 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$11 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $41 +$16 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $17 +$33 +194%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 −$15 -86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $16 −$8 -52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 09 $14 −$12 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 −$40 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 04 $10 −$5 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $21 +$19 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $20 +$14 +71%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $48 −$47 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 +$47 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $1,462 −$1,438 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $675 −$666 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 21 $349 −$345 -99%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) May 01 $190 +$170 +90%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 Apr 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 29 $587 −$587 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $434 +$359 +83%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Apr 25 $150 +$134 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $74 +$69 +92%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $114 +$100 +88%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $73 +$68 +93%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $66 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $298 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $424 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 55¢ $16 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $17 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $15 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 8d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 43¢ $17 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $2 9d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $41 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 34¢ $0 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 34¢ $17 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $17 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 SELL Under 26¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.83 · official $726.83 (match) · 653 history records