Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ac9…4beb world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 25% +$1
politics 17% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -10.0%
all 40 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage268d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$3 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $38 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $12 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $40 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $16 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.69 · official $33.69 (match) · 164 history records