Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aca…fa86 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$10
other 36% −$13
politics 13% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 10% -8.3%
≤30d 23 +3.1% -6.7% 43% 9% -8.5%
≤90d 39 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 5% -9.1%
all 46 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -24.8% 7% -18.2%
15% -32.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -38.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage528d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $53 +$5 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $103 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $50 −$7 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $18 +$9 +52%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $97 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $32 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $14 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $33 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $24 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $9 $0 -5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $4 $0 +4%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $82 $0 +0%
Between 400-449 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the match between Arsenal and Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the match between Celtic and Young Boys end in a draw? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 22 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points? Jan 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $9 +$3 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.66 · official $46.66 (match) · 175 history records