Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2acf…f9bb weather 607 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,625 (+15%) realized +$3,141 · open +$484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%213W / 526L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day101.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,452
7 days+$451
14 days+$2,844
30 days+$4,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6,827
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -56.2% -60.4% 12% 12% -2.3%
≤30d 718 -10.8% -19.3% 30% 28% +10.8%
≤90d 739 -13.1% -21.3% 29% 28% +8.2%
all 739 -13.1% -21.3% 29% 28% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 28% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 26% -2.1%
15% -35.7% 26% -11.6%
20% -42.0% 25% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$22 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,420
Realized+$3,141
Unrealized+$484
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses213 / 526
Open positions31
Markets (closed)739 / 607
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day101.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 96¢ $71 $352 +$281 (+394%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 62¢ $71 $166 +$95 (+133%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $75 $134 +$60 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 63¢ $68 $128 +$59 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $78 $105 +$27 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $68 $104 +$36 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $77 $104 +$27 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 51¢ 70¢ $73 $100 +$27 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $74 $97 +$23 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $75 $96 +$21 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $71 $90 +$19 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $77 $86 +$9 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 35¢ $59 $85 +$26 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $75 $85 +$10 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $70 $78 +$9 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $64 $74 +$10 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $73 $65 −$8 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $49 $64 +$16 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $69 $51 −$18 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $75 $35 −$40 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $43 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 19 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 17 $9 −$10 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 12? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 57m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $58 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,420.44 · official $2,419.10 (match) · 3500 history records