Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ad9…0eae other 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,615 (+4%) realized +$5,687 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%193W / 94L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day63.1pace
Fees−$912est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$11,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,066
7 days+$5,649
14 days+$4,508
30 days+$5,728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3,148
other 24% +$1,443
world 1% −$20
politics 1% +$5
finance 0% −$41
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -1.2% -10.7% 71% 17% +0.4%
≤30d 244 +0.2% -9.3% 66% 19% -5.3%
≤90d 287 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 22% -6.3%
all 287 +4.4% -5.6% 67% 22% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 22% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 14% -15.3%
15% -22.8% 9% -23.5%
20% -30.4% 7% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$80 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$11,702
Realized+$5,687
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses193 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$912
Open positions70
Markets (closed)287 / 357
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$406
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will RED Canids qualify to the EWC No 96¢ 98¢ $3,589 $3,647 +$58 (+2%)
Will LOS qualify to the EWC Yes 99¢ 96¢ $2,450 $2,385 −$64 (-3%)
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No 98¢ 98¢ $803 $809 +$6 (+1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? No 90¢ 96¢ $543 $576 +$33 (+6%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $483 $475 −$8 (-2%)
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? No 93¢ 86¢ $340 $317 −$23 (-7%)
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWC No 100¢ 99¢ $283 $279 −$4 (-1%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $185 $205 +$21 (+11%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 78¢ $169 $161 −$8 (-5%)
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $147 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? No 69¢ 69¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $121 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Will Top Esports make a roster change before July? No 89¢ 76¢ $139 $118 −$21 (-15%)
Will Tunisia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 81¢ 94¢ $97 $113 +$16 (+17%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 34¢ $111 $102 −$9 (-8%)
Will FURIA qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$1 (+2%)
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+6%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 16¢ $73 $97 +$25 (+34%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $86 $89 +$4 (+5%)
Will Team Secret Whales qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 39¢ $58 $67 +$9 (+15%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $80 $67 −$13 (-16%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-5%)
Will there be 1+ Pentakills at MSI? Yes 67¢ 59¢ $72 $63 −$9 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $157 +$3 +2%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 15 $106 +$7 +7%
Will Malo Gusto be in France's Starting 11? Jun 15 $644 +$7 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $897 +$819 +91%
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $604 −$218 -36%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $696 −$221 -32%
Will Marc Pubill be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -47%
Will Junya Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Hiroki Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $303 +$6 +2%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $230 +$45 +20%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $5,540 +$386 +7%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $163 −$1 -0%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $3,478 +$116 +3%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $574 +$256 +45%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$76 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $901 −$590 -66%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $389 +$547 +140%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $363 +$162 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $362 −$361 -100%
Will Jules Koundé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $188 +$1 +1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3,386 +$172 +5%
Will Ibrahima Konaté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 13 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $446 +$6 +1%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $526 +$99 +19%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $461 +$6 +1%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $351 +$6 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $4,694 +$47 +1%
Will Paraguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Nisha be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 12 $117 −$15 -13%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $3,506 +$109 +3%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 $0 -1%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $1,804 +$32 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $858 −$89 -10%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $414 +$86 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $144 +$32 +22%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $1,046 +$49 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1,952 +$162 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 85¢ $43 1h
Will FURIA qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Deep Cross Gaming qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Team Liquid qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 95¢ $47 2h
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 95¢ $47 2h
Will Brice Samba be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 98¢ $49 2h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY Yes 87¢ $90 2h
Will Deep Cross Gaming win the MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will FURIA win the MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will FlyQuest win the MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 3h
Will FlyQuest win the MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Brice Samba be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 98¢ $195 3h
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 3h
Will Deep Cross Gaming qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 96¢ $24 3h
Will FURIA qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 4h
Will Top Esports qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 4h
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 4h
Will FlyQuest qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Top Esports qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4h
Will Team Secret Whales qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 4h
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 4h
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 4h
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $105 4h
Will Team Liquid qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 91¢ $18 4h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $160 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,702.27 · official $11,701.44 (match) · 3500 history records