Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2adc…0afa other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,732 (+5%) realized +$1,732 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%68W / 24L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$317
14 days−$2
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$1,709
sports 8% −$157
world 2% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.4% +0.8% 67% 67% +1.9%
≤30d 16 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 50% -13.7%
≤90d 53 -14.8% -22.9% 64% 49% -11.8%
all 92 +8.7% -1.6% 74% 63% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 63% -5.0%
10% -11.0% 42% -14.1%
15% -19.6% 23% -22.4%
20% -27.5% 12% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$214 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,732
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses68 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage200d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $500 +$78 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $500 +$92 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 −$56 -19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$95 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $402 −$4 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 +$112 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 +$35 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 −$154 -76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $500 −$497 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $403 +$105 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $202 +$88 +43%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $500 +$99 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $304 −$199 -66%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $403 +$123 +30%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $204 +$15 +8%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $403 +$134 +33%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $402 +$97 +24%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $122 +$97 +80%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $403 +$21 +5%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 May 09 $402 +$91 +23%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 09 $302 +$77 +26%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $303 +$30 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $303 +$12 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $436 −$412 -94%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,004 +$214 +21%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $493 +$142 +29%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $500 −$409 -82%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 +$102 +20%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 +$42 +8%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $300 −$291 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 −$330 -66%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $496 +$178 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $499 +$178 +36%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $500 +$202 +40%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $461 +$237 +51%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $500 +$36 +7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Apr 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $500 +$32 +6%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $500 +$78 +16%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $500 +$113 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $500 +$68 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $579 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $500 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $591 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $500 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $246 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $303 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $399 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $398 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $402 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $612 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $500 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $437 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 80¢ $500 19d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 93¢ $509 21d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $403 21d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 22d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 22d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 23d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 83¢ $500 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 21¢ $104 24d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 27d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 27d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $219 27d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records