Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2adf…53f4 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$3
politics 31% $0
other 15% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.1%
all 58 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.94 per $1 lost it wins $4.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage324d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $17 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $80 +$3 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $80 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $13 $0 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $19 +$7 +40%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 08 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $43 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records