Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ae0…a6db world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 16% −$1
politics 14% $0
culture 5% −$2
tech 5% $0
weather 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage322d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $13 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 9? Aug 11 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 07 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 32h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $16 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $29 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $45 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.90 · official $12.90 (match) · 159 history records