Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2ae0…8f73 sports 465 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$882 (+2%) realized +$1,055 · open −$173
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%173W / 289L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days+$3
14 days+$1,050
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$796
other 20% −$228
crypto 1% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.3% -2.0% 40% 40% -9.3%
≤30d 37 +13.9% +3.0% 49% 46% +4.0%
≤90d 289 -15.1% -23.2% 42% 31% -8.6%
all 462 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 26% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -7.7%
10% -31.5% 22% -16.5%
15% -38.1% 20% -24.6%
20% -44.2% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$33 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,055
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses173 / 289
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions2
Markets (closed)462 / 465
History coverage111d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 30¢ 28¢ $52 $48 −$3 (-7%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ $172 $2 −$170 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $128 +$139 +108%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 18 $324 −$319 -98%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $20 +$40 +203%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 +$42 +233%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $289 +$398 +138%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $151 −$149 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 13 $16 +$8 +51%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$41 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $601 +$214 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $548 +$154 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$19 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $318 −$12 -4%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $102 −$6 -6%
Ilkley (Doubles): Corley/Ngounoue vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 11 $1 +$1 +118%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $316 +$188 +60%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 07 $259 +$567 +219%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $807 −$800 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $249 −$246 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $44 +$75 +172%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $88 +$118 +134%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 30 $140 −$138 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $352 +$600 +171%
Buducnost vs. BC Dubai May 26 $43 +$62 +146%
Sun vs. Bobo: Match O/U 21.5 May 25 $1 +$1 +43%
Map Handicap: MANA (-1.5) vs Prestige (+1.5) May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 25 $15 +$26 +172%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 25 $17 +$32 +187%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 May 22 $4 $0 +6%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $88 +$12 +14%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $43 −$38 -89%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 17 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 11.5 Total Corne May 16 $165 +$49 +30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5 May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5 May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY ECHO 30¢ $53 7m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $175 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Moroc BUY $7 23h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Mentality Monster 47¢ $324 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $128 47h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 33¢ $2 2d
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 33¢ $16 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $0 2d
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 33¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $13 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $19 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $131 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $7 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $22 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $7 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $18 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $70 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $33 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $12 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.08 · official $225.22 · 1036 history records