Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ae1…2a61 other 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-10%) realized −$295 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate37%51W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$391
14 days−$542
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$165
sports 27% −$243
world 6% −$204
crypto 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -14.4% -22.5% 71% 10% -24.1%
≤30d 137 +16.9% +5.8% 37% 15% -25.0%
≤90d 137 +16.9% +5.8% 37% 15% -25.0%
all 137 +16.9% +5.8% 37% 15% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 15% -25.0%
10% -4.3% 9% -32.2%
15% -13.6% 8% -38.7%
20% -22.1% 6% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses51 / 86
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 160
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 69¢ 26¢ $100 $37 −$63 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$15 +15%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$20 -56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $55 +$13 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$4 +4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$8 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $181 +$3 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -59%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Turun Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -33%
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 91¢ $101 4m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $109 17m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 17m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $32 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 91¢ $101 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $101 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 90¢ $100 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 45¢ $58 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 70¢ $120 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 58¢ $101 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $59 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $101 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 88¢ $103 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $100 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $116 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $28 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 90¢ $27 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 42h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 42h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.78 · official $46.38 · 484 history records