Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ae1…378f sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,411 (-39%) realized −$3,469 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$925
7 days−$2,544
14 days−$2,778
30 days−$2,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$3,279
other 27% +$559
crypto 2% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.4% -38.9% 39% 39% -41.3%
≤30d 19 -36.0% -42.1% 37% 37% -43.1%
≤90d 26 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -44.5%
all 26 -53.2% -57.7% 27% 27% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.7% 27% -44.5%
10% -61.7% 27% -49.8%
15% -65.4% 23% -54.7%
20% -68.8% 19% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -86% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$237 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized−$3,469
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage37d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,020 $1,078 +$58 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $418 +$282 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $171 +$129 +75%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $47 −$45 -96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $67 −$66 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $87 +$112 +128%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $149 +$150 +101%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,304 +$501 +38%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,292 −$1,292 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $640 −$640 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $795 +$205 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $390 −$386 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $219 +$153 +70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $833 −$833 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $302 −$302 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $397 −$373 -94%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $237 −$234 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Over $2 49m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $59 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $156 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $247 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $45 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $87 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $149 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,078.06 · official $1,078.06 (match) · 184 history records