Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2ae3…585c crypto 14 markets active 12h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$5
other 24% −$2
world 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.5%
all 13 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage16d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? Yes $15 $5 −$10 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $515 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $509 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $515 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $484 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $570 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $468 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $350 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $515 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $509 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $539 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $540 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $537 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $538 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $515 9d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 9d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $486 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $487 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $532 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $428 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $468 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $350 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 41 history records