Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2ae7…2419
world · 410 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$54 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$226
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses165 / 182
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions64
Markets (closed)347 / 410
History coverage114d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 64 History 347 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$24
14 days−$6
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 17¢ 60¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+241%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 67¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 60¢ 75¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 17¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-35%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 54¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -7%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +173%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +117%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$59
other 13% +$15
sports 11% −$76
politics 7% −$12
crypto 6% −$4
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 24¢ $1 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $1 3h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 4h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $3 5h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 48¢ $1 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $3 6h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL No 99¢ $1 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 14h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $4 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +21.3% +9.8% 66% 48% -0.2%
≤30d 161 +11.4% +0.7% 55% 39% +0.6%
≤90d 241 +5.5% -4.6% 52% 28% -8.0%
all 347 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 25% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 21% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 18% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.46 · official $226.50 (match) · 3500 history records